New Delhi: Ubukungu bw’inganda n’inganda biterwa cyane n’amavuta ya peteroli nk'indege, ubwikorezi, ubwikorezi bwo mu mihanda na gari ya moshi birashoboka ko byunguka bitewe no kugabanuka gutunguranye kw'ibiciro bya peteroli bitewe n'icyorezo cya coronavirus mu Bushinwa, ibicuruzwa bitumiza peteroli ku isi, nk'uko abahanga mu by'ubukungu, abayobozi bakuru n'impuguke babitangaje.
Mu gihe inganda zinyuranye zishyira mu bikorwa ingamba zazo mu gihe ingufu z’ingufu ziteganijwe kugabanuka kubera icyorezo cya coronavirus, abatumiza peteroli mu Buhinde nk’Ubuhinde barashaka guteza imbere amasezerano meza. Ubuhinde n’igihugu cya gatatu mu bihugu bitumiza peteroli mu mahanga kandi kigura kane mu kugura gaze gasanzwe (LNG).
Isoko rya peteroli kuri ubu rihura nikibazo cyitwa contango, aho ibiciro biri munsi yamasezerano yigihe kizaza.
Debasish Mishra, umufatanyabikorwa wa Debasish Mishra yagize ati: "Ikigereranyo cy’inzego nyinshi cyerekana ko icyifuzo cy’ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa Q1 kizagabanukaho 15-20%, bigatuma igabanuka ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku isi. Ibi bigaragarira mu biciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli na LNG byombi bikaba byiza ku Buhinde.
Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu (IEA) n’umuryango w’ibihugu byohereza peteroli mu mahanga (Opec) byagabanije icyerekezo cy’iterambere rya peteroli ku isi nyuma y’icyorezo cya coronavirus.
Mishra yongeyeho ati: "Imirenge nk'indege, amarangi, ubukerarugendo, ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe byo mu nganda, n'ibindi byungukira ku butegetsi bwiza."
Ubuhinde n’isoko rikomeye ryo gutunganya Aziya, rifite ubushobozi bwa toni zirenga miliyoni 249.4 ku mwaka (mtpa) binyuze mu nganda 23. Ikiguzi cy’igitebo cy’Ubuhinde cy’ibicuruzwa, wagereranije $ 56.43 na $ 69.88 kuri buri barrale muri FY18 na FY19, wagereranije $ 65.52 mu Kuboza 2019, nk’uko amakuru ava mu Kagari gashinzwe gutegura no gusesengura peteroli abitangaza. Igiciro cyari $ 54.93 kuri barrale ku ya 13 Gashyantare. Igitebo cyu Buhinde kigereranya impuzandengo ya Oman, Dubai na Brent.
Kinjal Shah, visi perezida w’ibipimo ngenderwaho mu kigo cy’ibipimo ngenderwaho ICRA Ltd.
Mu gihe ubukungu bwifashe nabi, inganda z’ingendo zo mu kirere mu Buhinde ziyongereyeho 3,7% by’abagenzi muri 2019 zigera kuri miliyoni 144.
Mark Martin, washinze akaba n'umuyobozi mukuru muri Martin Consulting Llc, umujyanama mu by'indege yagize ati: "Iki gishobora kuba igihe cyiza ku ndege kugira ngo yishyure igihombo.
Icyorezo cya coronavirus mu Bushinwa cyatumye ibigo by’ingufu bihagarika amasezerano yo gutanga no kugabanya umusaruro. Ibi byagize ingaruka ku biciro bya peteroli ku isi ndetse n’ibiciro byoherezwa. Ibibazo by’ubucuruzi n’ubukungu bwifashe nabi ku isi nabyo bifite impinduka ku masoko y’ingufu.
Abayobozi mu kanama gashinzwe inganda mu Buhinde, uruganda rw’inganda, bavuze ko Ubuhinde bushingiye ku Bushinwa ku miti ikoreshwa mu rwego rw’agaciro, aho uruhare rw’icyo gihugu rutumizwa mu mahanga ruva kuri 10-40%. Urwego rwa peteroli rukora nkinkingi yizindi nzego zinyuranye zikora n’inganda zidakora nk’ibikorwa remezo, imodoka, imyenda n’ibihe biramba by’abaguzi.
Sudhir Shenoy, perezida w’igihugu akaba n’umuyobozi mukuru wa Dow Chemical International Pvt, yagize ati: "Ibicuruzwa bitandukanye n’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga biva mu Bushinwa. Nubwo, kugeza ubu, amasosiyete atumiza mu mahanga atagira ingaruka ku buryo bugaragara, urwego rw’ibicuruzwa rwumye. Ku bw'ibyo, bashobora kumva ko hari ingaruka zizagenda neza niba ibintu bitifashe neza". Ltd.
Ibi birashobora kugirira akamaro uruganda rukora imiti ya reberi, electrode ya grafite, karubone yumukara, amarangi na pigment kuko ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mubushinwa bishobora guhatira abaguzi ba nyuma kubishakira aho.
Ibiciro biri hasi y’ibicuruzwa na byo bizana inkuru nziza mu isanduku ya guverinoma mu gihe amafaranga yabuze ndetse n’igabanuka ry’imari ryiyongera. Bitewe n'ubwiyongere bukabije bw'ikusanyamakuru ryinjira, minisitiri w’imari Nirmala Sitharaman, ubwo yerekanaga ingengo y’ubumwe, yasabye ingingo yo guhunga gufata ingingo 50 zishingiye ku gihombo cy’ingengo y’imari ya 2019-20, ifata ikigereranyo cyavuguruwe kugera kuri 3.8% bya GDP.
Ku wa gatandatu, guverineri wa RBI, Shaktikanta Das, yavuze ko igabanuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli bizagira ingaruka nziza ku guta agaciro kw’ifaranga. Yongeyeho ati: "Igipimo nyamukuru gituruka ku guta agaciro kw'ibiribwa, ni ukuvuga imboga n'ibikomoka kuri poroteyine. Ifaranga ry'ibanze ryaragabanutseho gato kubera ivugurura ry'amahoro y'itumanaho".
Kubera igabanuka ry’urwego rw’inganda, umusaruro w’uruganda mu Buhinde wagabanutse mu Kuboza, mu gihe ifaranga ry’ibicuruzwa ryihuse mu kwezi kwa gatandatu gukurikiranye muri Mutarama, bituma abantu bashidikanya ku bijyanye n’ubukungu bw’ubukungu bushya. Ubwiyongere bw’ubukungu bw’Ubuhinde bugereranywa n’ikigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe ibarurishamibare ko kizagera ku myaka 11 munsi ya 5% muri 2019-20 bitewe n’imikoreshereze idahwitse n’ishoramari.
Madan Sabnavis, impuguke mu by'ubukungu muri CARE Ratings, yavuze ko ibiciro bya peteroli byagabanutse ku Buhinde. Ati: "Icyakora, igitutu cyo hejuru ntigishobora kuvaho, hamwe n’igabanywa ryateganijwe na Opec ndetse n’ibindi bihugu byohereza mu mahanga. Kubera iyo mpamvu, dukeneye kwibanda ku buryo bwo kongera ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga no kureba ku mpamvu zitera ibiciro by’ibiciro bya peteroli, ni ukuvuga coronavirus, ndetse no gusunika ibicuruzwa byacu mu Bushinwa, mu gihe dushakisha ubundi buryo bwo gutanga ibicuruzwa ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.
Kubera guhangayikishwa n’ibikenerwa na peteroli, Opec irashobora guteza imbere inama yayo yo ku ya 5-6 Werurwe, hamwe n’inama yayo ya tekinike isaba ko hagabanywa by'agateganyo gahunda ya Opec +.
Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, umuyobozi n’ishami rishinzwe gutwara abantu n'ibintu muri Crisil Infrastructure Advisory, yagize ati: "Kubera ubucuruzi bwiza butumizwa mu Burasirazuba, ingaruka ku byambu bya kontineri nka JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) bizaba byinshi, mu gihe ingaruka ku cyambu cya Mundra zizaba nke." Ati: “Impinduka ni uko bimwe mu bicuruzwa bishobora kuva mu Bushinwa bikajya mu Buhinde by'agateganyo.”
Mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli kubera ubwiyongere bukabije hagati y’Amerika na Irani ryabaye igihe gito, icyorezo cya coronavirus n’umusaruro uri hafi kugabanywa n’ibihugu bya Opec byateje ikintu kidashidikanywaho.
Umuyobozi mukuru mu isosiyete ikora ibijyanye n’ingengo y’imari ya New Delhi ikorera mu mujyi wa New Delhi yagize ati: "Nubwo ibiciro bya peteroli biri hasi, igipimo cy’ivunjisha (rupi ku madorari) kirazamuka, ari nacyo kiganisha ku giciro cyo hejuru. Tworohewe iyo ifaranga rigera kuri 65-70 ugereranije n’idolari. Kubera ko igice kinini cy’amafaranga dukoresha, harimo n’amavuta y’indege, cyishyurwa mu rwego rw’idolari, amadovize ni ikintu cy'ingenzi mu biciro byacu."
Kugira ngo tumenye neza ko izamuka ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli rishobora kongera kuzamura ibiciro bishobora kuzamura ifaranga kandi bikangiza icyifuzo.
Ibiciro bya peteroli biri hejuru nabyo bigira ingaruka zitaziguye binyuze mu musaruro mwinshi no gutwara abantu kandi bigatera umuvuduko ukabije ku guta agaciro kw’ibiribwa. Imbaraga zose zo kugabanya umutwaro ku baguzi mu kugabanya umusoro ku musoro kuri lisansi na mazutu byabangamira kwinjiza amafaranga.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey na Gireesh Chandra Prasad bagize uruhare muri iyi nkuru.
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Igihe cyo kohereza: Apr-28-2021