New Delhi: Ubukungu bw’u Buhinde n’inganda zishingiye cyane kuri peteroli nk’indege, ubwikorezi bw’amato, ubwikorezi bw’imihanda na gari ya moshi bishobora kunguka bitewe n’igabanuka ritunguranye ry’ibiciro bya peteroli bitewe n’icyorezo cya coronavirus mu Bushinwa, igihugu gitumiza peteroli ku isi cyane, nk’uko byatangajwe n’abahanga mu by’ubukungu, abayobozi bakuru n’inzobere.
Mu gihe inganda zitandukanye zirimo guhindura ingamba zazo mu gihe hateganyijwe ko ingufu zikenewe zigabanuka bitewe n’icyorezo cya coronavirus, abatumiza peteroli bakomeye nka Ubuhinde barimo gushaka uburyo bwo kugabanya igiciro. Ubuhinde ni igihugu cya gatatu ku isi mu gutumiza peteroli nini, kikaba n’icya kane mu kugura gaze karemano (LNG) ifite amazi.
Isoko rya peteroli ubu ririmo guhangana n’ikibazo cyitwa contango, aho ibiciro bya stop market biri hasi ugereranyije n’amasezerano y’ejo hazaza.
“Ibigereranyo by’ibigo bitandukanye bigaragaza ko icyifuzo cy’ibikomoka ku matungo yo mu Bushinwa mu gihembwe cya mbere kizagabanukaho 15-20%, bigatuma ibiciro by’ibikomoka ku matungo yo mu bwoko bwa “ferme” ku isi bigabanuka. Ibi bigaragarira mu biciro by’ibikomoka ku matungo yo mu bwoko bwa “ferme” na “LNG”, byombi bikaba ari byiza ku Buhinde. Ibi bizafasha Ubuhinde mu bijyanye n’ubukungu bushingiye ku miterere yabwo mu rwego rw’ubukungu bushingiye ku kugabanya icyuho kiri mu mibare, kubungabunga uburyo buhamye bwo kuvunjisha ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibiciro,” ibi byavuzwe na Debasish Mishra, umufatanyabikorwa wa Deloitte India.
Ikigo Mpuzamahanga Gishinzwe Ingufu (IEA) n'Umuryango w'Ibihugu Bicuruza Peteroli (Opec) bagabanyije icyerekezo cy'ubwiyongere bw'ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku isi nyuma y'icyorezo cya coronavirus.
“Inganda nk’iz’indege, amarangi, ibibumbano, bimwe mu bicuruzwa by’inganda, n’ibindi byakungukirwa n’ibiciro byiza,” Mishra yongeyeho.
Ubuhinde ni ikigo cy'ingenzi mu gutunganya ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri Aziya, gifite ubushobozi bwo gupima toni zisaga miliyoni 249.4 ku mwaka (mtpa) binyuze mu nganda 23 zitunganya ibikomoka kuri peteroli. Igiciro cy'igikapu cy'ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu Buhinde, cyari impuzandengo ya $56.43 na $69.88 kuri buri kirahuri mu mwaka wa 18 n'umwaka wa 19, uko bikurikirana, cyari impuzandengo ya $65.52 mu Kuboza 2019, nk'uko amakuru aturuka mu Kigo gishinzwe igenamigambi n'isesengura rya Peteroli abigaragaza. Igiciro cyari $54.93 kuri buri kirahuri ku ya 13 Gashyantare. Igikapu cy'Ubuhinde kigaragaza impuzandengo ya Oman, Dubai na Brent crude.
Kinjal Shah, visi perezida ushinzwe amanota y’ibigo mu kigo gishinzwe amanota ICRA Ltd, yagize ati: “Mu bihe byashize, igiciro gito cya peteroli cyagaragaje ko inyungu y’indege ziyongera cyane.”
Mu gihe ubukungu bwari bukomeje kugabanuka, inganda z’ingendo zo mu kirere mu Buhinde zabonye ubwiyongere bw’abagenzi ku kigero cya 3.7% mu 2019, abagenzi bagera kuri miliyoni 144.
“Iki gishobora kuba igihe cyiza ku bigo by’indege kugira ngo byishyure igihombo. Ibi bigo by’indege bishobora kubikoresha mu kwishyuza igihombo, mu gihe abagenzi bashobora gukoresha iki gihe mu gutegura ingendo kuko ikiguzi cy’itike y’indege cyarushaho kuba cyiza,” ibi byavuzwe na Mark Martin, washinze akaba n’umuyobozi mukuru wa Martin Consulting Llc, umujyanama mu by’indege.
Icyorezo cya coronavirus mu Bushinwa cyatumye ibigo by’ingufu bihakorera bihagarika amasezerano yo gutanga no kugabanya umusaruro. Ibi byagize ingaruka ku biciro bya peteroli ku isi ndetse no ku gipimo cy’ubwikorezi. Amakimbirane mu bucuruzi ndetse n’ubukungu bw’isi buri kugabanuka nabyo bifite ingaruka ku masoko y’ingufu.
Abayobozi bo mu Nama y’Ubuhinde ishinzwe imiti, ikigo cy’inganda, bavuze ko Ubuhinde bushingiye ku Bushinwa ku miti ikoreshwa mu ruganda rw’agaciro, aho uruhare rw’icyo gihugu mu bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga ruri hagati ya 10 na 40%. Urwego rw’ibikomoka kuri peteroli rukora nk’inkingi y’inganda zitandukanye n’izidakora nk’ibikorwa remezo, imodoka, imyenda n’ibikoresho biramba.
“Ubwoko bwinshi bw’ibikoresho fatizo n’ibihuza bitumizwa mu Bushinwa. Nubwo kugeza ubu, amasosiyete atumizwa mu mahanga ntacyo yagizweho ingaruka cyane, uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa byabo rurimo gukama. Bityo, bashobora kumva ingaruka mu gihe kizaza niba ibintu bitagenze neza,” ibi byavuzwe na Sudhir Shenoy, perezida w’igihugu akaba n’umuyobozi mukuru wa Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Ibi bishobora gufasha abakora imiti ya kabutura mu gihugu, electrode za grafiti, umukara wa karuboni, amarangi n'amabara kuko ibicuruzwa byo mu Bushinwa bike bishobora gutuma abaguzi babyo babishaka mu gihugu.
Ibiciro by’ibikomoka ku matungo maremare biri hasi kandi bizana inkuru nziza ku isanduku ya leta mu gihe hari ikibazo cy’ibura ry’amafaranga yinjira n’ibura ry’imari rikomeje kwiyongera. Bitewe n’izamuka ry’imisoro mu ikusanyirizwa ry’amafaranga, Minisitiri w’imari Nirmala Sitharaman, ubwo yatangaga ingengo y’imari y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye, yakoresheje ingingo yo gutoroka kugira ngo habeho icyuho cy’icyuho cy’ingengo y’imari cya 2019-20, bituma ikigereranyo cyavuguruwe kigera kuri 3.8% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu.
Guverineri wa RBI, Shaktikanta Das, yavuze ku wa Gatandatu ko kugabanuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli bizagira ingaruka nziza ku izamuka ry'ibiciro. Yongeyeho ati: “Izamuka rikomeye rituruka ku izamuka ry'ibiciro ry'ibiribwa, ni ukuvuga imboga n'ibikomoka kuri poroteyine. Izamuka ry'ibiciro ry'ibanze ryazamutse gato kubera ivugururwa ry'ibiciro by'itumanaho.”
Kubera ko umusaruro w’inganda mu Buhinde wagabanutse cyane mu Kuboza, mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro ry’ibicuruzwa ryihutaga mu kwezi kwa gatandatu kwikurikiranya muri Mutarama, ibyo bikaba byarateye gushidikanya ku bijyanye no kuzamuka k’ubukungu bwari bukiri bushya. Ibiro by’igihugu by’ibarurishamibare biteganya ko izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’Ubuhinde rizagera ku kigero cyo hasi mu myaka 11, rikaba ari 5% mu mwaka wa 2019-20 bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ibiciro n’ishoramari.
Madan Sabnavis, umuhanga mu by'ubukungu muri CARE Ratings, yavuze ko kugabanuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli ari umugisha ku Buhinde. Yakomeje agira ati: “Ariko, igitutu cyo kuzamuka nticyakwirengagizwa, hamwe n’igabanuka ry’ibiciro bya Opec n’ibindi bihugu byohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga. Kubwibyo, tugomba kwibanda ku buryo bwo kongera ibyoherezwa mu mahanga no kureba uburyo bwo gukoresha impamvu yo kugabanuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli, ni ukuvuga coronavirus, no gusunika ibicuruzwa byacu mu Bushinwa, mu gihe dushaka ubundi buryo bwo kugurisha ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga. Ku bw'amahirwe, bitewe n'umuvuduko uhoraho w'imari, igitutu ku rupiyefu si ikibazo.”
Kubera impungenge ku kibazo cy’ibura ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, Opec ishobora gukomeza inama yayo yo ku wa 5 kugeza kuri 6 Werurwe, aho akanama kayo ka tekiniki gasaba ko amasezerano ya Opec+ agabanywa by’agateganyo.
“Bitewe n’ubucuruzi bwiza bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu Burasirazuba, ingaruka ku byambu bya kontineri nka JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) zizaba nyinshi, mu gihe ingaruka ku cyambu cya Mundra zizaba nke,” ibi byavuzwe na Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, umuyobozi akaba n’umuyobozi ushinzwe ubwikorezi n’ibijyanye n’ibikoresho muri Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. “Ikindi ni uko zimwe mu nganda zishobora kuva mu Bushinwa zijya mu Buhinde by’agateganyo.”
Nubwo izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikomoka ku matungo mato ryatewe n’izamuka ry’amakimbirane hagati ya Amerika na Irani ryamaze igihe gito, icyorezo cya coronavirus n’igabanuka ry’umusaruro rigiye kugaragara mu bihugu bya Opec byateje ikibazo cy’ihungabana.
“Nubwo ibiciro bya peteroli biri hasi, igipimo cy’ivunjisha (rupee ugereranyije n’idolari) kirimo kuzamuka, ari nabyo bituma ibiciro byiyongera. Tuba twishimye iyo rupee iri hagati ya 65 na 70 ugereranyije n’idolari. Kubera ko igice kinini cy’amafaranga dukoresha, harimo n’ayo gukoresha lisansi y’indege, yishyurwa mu buryo bw’idolari, amadovize ni ingenzi mu biciro byacu,” nk’uko byatangajwe n’umuyobozi mukuru w’ikigo cy’indege cy’i New Delhi kigendera ku ngengo y’imari.
Mu by’ukuri, kongera kuzamuka kw’ibikenewe muri peteroli bishobora kongera kuzamura ibiciro bishobora kongera izamuka ry’ibiciro no kwangiza icyifuzo.
Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli naryo rigira ingaruka zitaziguye bitewe n’ibiciro byo hejuru by’umusaruro n’ubwikorezi, kandi rigashyira igitutu ku izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa. Imbaraga zose zo kugabanya umutwaro ku baguzi mu kugabanya umusoro ku lisansi na mazutu zabangamira inyungu zinjira.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey na Gireesh Chandra Prasad bagize uruhare muri iyi nkuru.
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Igihe cyo kohereza: 28 Mata 2021