Ese hari ingaruka zo kwiharira umutungo kamere muri koka ya peteroli ifite graphite?

Koke ya peteroli ifite grafiti ihura n'ibibazo bimwe na bimwe bya geopolitike na monopoly resource, aho inkomoko y'ibi bibazo ishobora gusesengurwa mu buryo bune: ikwirakwizwa ry'umutungo, impinduka mu miterere ya geopolitike, igenzura ry'inganda, n'imbogamizi za politiki n'ubucuruzi.

I. Ikwirakwizwa ry'umutungo ritaringaniye rituma habaho kwishingikiriza ku uturere twihariye

Nk'umusaruro w'ibikomoka ku gutunganya peteroli, ingano y'umusaruro wa peteroli ifitanye isano itaziguye n'ubushobozi bwo gutunganya peteroli. Ikwirakwizwa ry'umutungo wa peteroli ku isi ritaringaniye rituma peteroli ikoreshwa cyane mu gutunganya peteroli n'ahantu hatunganyirizwa peteroli. Urugero:

• Umusaruro wimbitse wa Peteroli Coke mu Bushinwa: Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ugushyingo 2024, umusaruro wa peteroli wa coke mu Bushinwa wibanze cyane mu Bushinwa bw'Iburasirazuba, mu Bushinwa bw'Amajyepfo, no mu Majyaruguru y'Uburasirazuba bw'Ubushinwa, bingana na 80% by'ibiteranyo byose, aho Ubushinwa bw'Iburasirazuba bwagize uruhare rurenga 55%. Uku kwiyongera kw'ibicuruzwa mu karere bituma ihindagurika ry'ibicuruzwa mu gihugu rigira ingaruka ku isoko ry'igihugu.
• Gushingira cyane ku bicuruzwa biva mu mahanga: Koke yo mu Bushinwa yikorera ubwayo ntishobora guhaza ibyifuzo by’imbere mu gihugu, aho igice cy’umusaruro n’ikoreshwa ry’ibicuruzwa byinjizwa mu mahanga cyiyongereyeho ibitumizwa mu mahanga. Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ugushyingo 2024, nubwo ibitumizwa mu Bushinwa byagabanutseho 15.22% ugereranyije n’umwaka, igipimo cyo gushingira hanze cyagumye hejuru ya 25%, aho koke yo mu bwoko bwa sulfure nyinshi itwara ibirenga 70% by’ibitumizwa mu mahanga mu 2023. Amasoko y’ibitumizwa mu mahanga arimo Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Arabiya Sawudite, Kanada, n’ibindi. Amakimbirane ya politiki cyangwa impinduka muri politiki y’ubucuruzi muri ibi bihugu bishobora kubangamira mu buryo butaziguye ihindagurika ry’ibicuruzwa.

II. Impinduka mu miterere y'ubutaka ziyongera ingaruka z'itangwa ry'amashanyarazi

Impinduka mu miterere y’ingufu ku isi zishobora guteza ibibazo ku ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa bya peteroli:

• Irushanwa rikomeye ry’umutungo: Nk’ibikoresho fatizo by’ingufu n’imiti, itangwa rya peteroli rya coke rishobora kugira ingaruka ku irushanwa ry’umutungo. Urugero, ihungabana rya politiki mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati n’imibanire mibi hagati y’Uburusiya n’ibihugu by’Iburengerazuba bishobora gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli bihagarara cyangwa bigahindagurika, bityo bikagira ingaruka ku musaruro wa peteroli wa coke.
• Inzira zo gutwara abantu zafunzwe: Amakimbirane ya politiki y’ubutaka ashobora kubangamira inzira zo gutwara abantu hakoreshejwe peteroli, bigatuma ikiguzi cyo gutwara abantu n’igihe cyo kubatwara kiyongera, ndetse bigatuma habaho ihagarara ry’ibicuruzwa. Urugero, kwiyongera kw’ibibazo by’umutekano mu nzira yo gutwara abantu mu Nyanja Itukura bishobora kugira ingaruka ku mikorere y’iyoherezwa ry’ibicuruzwa bya peteroli byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati mu Bushinwa.

III. Ingaruka zo kwiharira inyungu mu mibanire y'ingenzi y'uruhererekane rw'inganda

Hari isano cyangwa ikoranabuhanga rimwe na rimwe mu ruhererekane rw'inganda za peteroli rishobora kugenzurwa n'ibigo cyangwa ibihugu bike, bigatuma habaho umwihariko wabyo:

• Ubwihariko mu itangwa rya peteroli: Isoko ry’isi yose rya peteroli rigizwe n’ibihugu bike bicukura peteroli, aho imiryango nka OPEC igira ingaruka ku biciro bya peteroli binyuze muri politiki y’umusaruro, bityo ikagenzura mu buryo butaziguye ibiciro bya peteroli ya coke. Urugero, kugabanuka k’umusaruro wa OPEC bishobora gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli y’icyatsi kibisi byiyongera, bigatuma ibiciro bya peteroli ya coke byiyongera.
• Imbogamizi za tekiniki mu gutunganya ibikomoka kuri peteroli: Ikoranabuhanga ryo gutunganya ibikomoka kuri peteroli, nko guteka no gukaranga, rifite imbogamizi zimwe na zimwe, kandi ibigo bikora ikoranabuhanga ry'ingenzi bishobora kubona inyungu ku isoko. Urugero, nubwo Ubushinwa buyoboye mu ikoranabuhanga rya grafiti, buracyashingiye ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga biva muri peteroli bigezweho n'ibindi bikoresho by'ingenzi, bigatera ibyago byo kwiharira na tekiniki.
• Isoko ry’Ikoreshwa ry’Ibicuruzwa Bikomeye: Ikoreshwa rya peteroli rya coke ryibanda cyane cyane kuri anode na lisansi byatetse mbere, bingana na 77% mu gice cya mbere cya 2024. Inganda za aluminiyumu zikoresha amashanyarazi, nk'abakoresha cyane anode zatetse mbere, zishobora kugira ingaruka ku busabe bwa peteroli bwa coke bitewe n'ubushobozi bwo kuyikora (urugero, umurongo utukura wa toni miliyoni 45 mu Bushinwa), bigatuma habaho uruhande rw’ubusabe.

IV. Politiki n'Imbogamizi z'Ubucuruzi Bibangamira Igabanuka ry'Isoko

Politiki n'imbogamizi mu bucuruzi mu bihugu bitandukanye bishobora kongera igabanywa ry'amasoko no kwiharira isoko rya peteroli rya coke:

• Ibibujijwe kuri Politiki y’Ibidukikije: “Gahunda y’ibikorwa byo kubungabunga ingufu no kugabanya karuboni mu Bushinwa 2024-2025” ivuga ko, uretse amashami asanzwe akoreshwa mu bigo bitanga peteroli, koke ya peteroli ifite sulfure nyinshi ntigomba gukoreshwa nk’ibikomoka kuri peteroli. Iyi politiki ibuza ikoreshwa rya koke ya peteroli ifite sulfure nyinshi mu rwego rwa lisansi, aho hari abasaba koke ya peteroli ifite sulfure nke, bishobora gutuma habaho kwiharira isoko rya koke ya peteroli ifite sulfure nke.
• Igenzura ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga n’Intambara z’Ubucuruzi: Ibihugu bikomeye byohereza mu mahanga bishobora kugabanya itangwa rya koke ikomoka kuri peteroli binyuze mu kugenzura ibyoherezwa mu mahanga cyangwa kongera imisoro binyuze mu ntambara z’ubucuruzi, bigira ingaruka ku isoko mpuzamahanga. Urugero, imisoro ya Amerika ku Bushinwa ishobora kongera ikiguzi cya koke ikomoka kuri peteroli y’Ubushinwa, bigaca intege ubushobozi bwayo bwo guhangana ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
• Kubuza Kohereza Umutungo mu mahanga: Ibihugu bikungahaye ku mutungo bishobora kugabanya ibyoherezwa mu mahanga kugira ngo birinde inganda zabyo zo mu gihugu, bigatera ibibazo ku isi. Urugero, amategeko ya Indoneziya ku kohereza amabuye y'agaciro ya nickel, nubwo atari ko areba mu buryo butaziguye koke ya peteroli, agaragaza icyerekezo cy'ibihugu bishora umutungo mu mahanga bikoresha ingamba zo kugenzura amasoko, bishobora guteza ingaruka nk'izo ku yindi mitungo nka peteroli ya coke.